--- title: Deal Stage Regression: Why Deals Go Backwards | Torke url: https://torke.tech/blog/pipeline-stage-regression description: Deal stage regression is when accounts slip back to an earlier stage. How we count it with the Ratchet Rate, and what the number says about progress. --- # How to check whether pipeline progress holds, with the Ratchet Rate Deals and accounts go backwards in the pipeline more often than reports show. The Ratchet Rate counts how much forward movement still holds 90 days later. 17 October 2026, 4 minute read, by Vincent Quero ## What causes deal stage regression? Accounts slip back when the signal that moved them fades before the buying group is reached, when evaluation never reaches the people who approve budget, or when a lead is handed over without its evidence. We measure it with the Ratchet Rate, the share of accounts still at a stage or beyond 90 days after reaching it. Deals go backwards in the pipeline far more often than a monthly report suggests, because most reports count how many accounts moved forward and never check how many of them fell back afterwards. An account that reached evaluation in March and went quiet by June still shows up as March progress, so a team can report steady forward movement for a year while the same accounts cycle in and out of the same stages. We measure this with what we call the Ratchet Rate: the share of accounts that, once advanced to a stage of the acquisition pipeline, have not slipped back to an earlier stage 90 days later. The name comes from the ratchet in the Torke mark, a part that only turns one way. A high Ratchet Rate means progress holds, and a low one means the program is pushing accounts forward without anything to keep them there. The acquisition pipeline we track has five stages, Discovery, Timing, Evaluation, Qualification and Handover, and accounts slip between them for a handful of recurring reasons. The signal that moved an account to Timing faded before anyone in the buying group was reached. Evaluation reached the engineers but never the people in operations or finance who approve the budget, so the conversation stalled when it reached them. Or a lead was handed over without its evidence and sat untouched in the CRM until the account cooled. Each reason leaves a different trace, which is why the rate is worth reading stage by stage. Calculating it takes a stage history, which most CRMs keep if lifecycle stages are set up properly, as our [Revenue Operations practice](https://torke.tech/service) sets them. Take every account that entered a given stage during one month. Ninety days later, count how many are still at that stage or further along, and divide by the number that entered. Do this for each stage separately, because a strong rate at Discovery and a weak one at Evaluation point to very different problems. Take 40 accounts that reached Evaluation in March as an example. If by the end of June 26 are still in Evaluation or have moved to Qualification, while 14 have fallen back to Timing or Discovery, the Ratchet Rate for Evaluation is 26 out of 40, or 65 percent. The March report counted 40 accounts of progress, while what held was 26, and the 14 that slipped tell you where to look, most often at which members of the [buying group were never reached](https://torke.tech/blog/buying-group-coverage). The metric has limits. Some slipping is honest: an account whose budget was frozen or whose project was cancelled should move back, and a rate that never drops may mean nobody updates the stages. On a list of a few hundred accounts, one month's cohort can be too small to read, so a rate built on 8 accounts should be reported as unreadable rather than as a trend. And the rate covers the acquisition pipeline Torke runs, while slippage in the sales pipeline after Handover belongs to the client's own team and reports. For a revenue leader, the consequence is a different question in the monthly review. Next to how many accounts moved forward, the report shows how many of last quarter's movers held, and the gap between those two numbers often explains why a program looks productive and still produces few accepted leads. Any process that reports forward motion without checking whether it held has the same blind spot, from recruiting funnels to partner programs. Pull the accounts that reached your evaluation stage three months ago and check where each one sits today: the share still at that stage or beyond is your Ratchet Rate, and the ones that fell back are the clearest list you will get of what your program is missing. ## Questions readers ask Each answer stands on its own, so you can forward one to a colleague, and an assistant asked the same question can quote it as it is. ### How do you measure pipeline stage regression? Take every account that entered a stage in one month, and 90 days later count how many are still at that stage or further along. Divide by the number that entered, and repeat for each stage separately. ### Is it normal for accounts to move backwards in the pipeline? Some movement back is honest, for example when a budget is frozen or a project is cancelled. A rate that never drops can mean stages are not being updated, so read the reasons behind each slip. ### How many accounts do you need for a reliable regression rate? Enough that one account changes the rate by only a few points. With a cohort of under about twenty accounts, report the rate as unreadable or combine several months rather than presenting it as a trend. ## You own a target on a long sales cycle Work back from the revenue target and the close date to the accepted leads you need each month, and the last date a new lead can still close this period. [Open the pipeline calculator](https://torke.tech/resources/pipeline-coverage-calculator) ## Where this applies These industry pages show the same idea with the buyers, signals and stalls of one market. ### Robotics & Industrial Automation Robots, mobile robots, machine vision and industrial AI sold to factory, warehouse and logistics operators, often through integrators, where operations decides the rollout. Where deals stall: The step from one pilot site to a group rollout [How we work in Robotics & Industrial Automation](https://torke.tech/industries/robotics-and-industrial-automation) ### Medtech Surgical systems, implants, diagnostic devices and wearables sold to hospitals, clinics and labs, where a clinician champions the device and a committee or tender decides. Where deals stall: The hospital's value analysis committee or tender [How we work in Medtech](https://torke.tech/industries/medtech) ### Semiconductors & Electronics Chips, MEMS, sensors and LiDAR, photonics and the materials behind them, sold to OEM and tier-one engineering teams who design them into their own products. Where deals stall: The OEM's design freeze and part qualification [How we work in Semiconductors & Electronics](https://torke.tech/industries/semiconductors-and-electronics) ### Finance & Banking Custody, banking platforms, execution and transaction services sold by banks to asset managers, other banks and companies, where operations, compliance and risk decide. Where deals stall: The client's outsourcing and risk review [How we work in Finance & Banking](https://torke.tech/industries/finance-and-banking) ## Keep reading The next articles and pages on the same problem. ### How to measure Account Grip One warm contact at an account says little about whether a purchase will happen. Account Grip counts how much of the buying group is actually in the conversation. [Read the article, 4 minutes](https://torke.tech/blog/buying-group-coverage) ### From accepted lead to opportunity The days between a lead and an opportunity belong to nobody, which is where handovers stall. We measure them as the median days from an accepted lead to an opened opportunity. [Read the article, 4 minutes](https://torke.tech/blog/lead-to-opportunity-time) ### Torke Service We run the work against your named accounts and deliver qualified leads, each with its evidence. [How Torke Service works](https://torke.tech/service)